The Fourth Turning was written by William Strauss and Neil Howe in 1997, yet this book has aged eerily well and has become ever more relevant for today. For anyone wishing to gain further insight into their own generation and the times we are currently living through, this book is foundational.
In the Suburban Prepper Moms Facebook group, I’ve challenged group members to read it with me so we can discuss it. I hope you’ll join in too. I grabbed the online version here.
Theory of the Fourth Turning
The authors believe time is cyclical, naturally rotating between periods of crisis and periods of awakening. By reflecting on the last few centuries leading back to Roman times, they show how time acts like the seasons, having four predictable turnings within a natural lifetime or “saeculum” (roughly 80-100 years).
- Spring or the First Turning happens directly after a crisis, and optimism is high. Community and institutions are valued over individualism.
- Summer or the Second Turning is a time of “awakening,” with new spiritual ideas and values upsetting the old.
- Fall or the Third Turning is when a restlessness sets in and institutions get weaker. Individualism is emphasized.
- Winter or the Fourth Turning is when the crisis (or series of crises) hits. A new civic order emerges.
What makes this book so compelling for today is according to what the authors wrote in 1997, the developed world would experience the next crisis from the mid 2000s to mid 2020s. Well dang! That seems spot on, doesn’t it? In 2008 we had a severe market crash, with politicians and the banking elites never really fixing anything – just pushing the ball down the line a little further. As of 2022, we’ve had a global pandemic and seen war break out again in Ukraine, threatening to draw the rest of the world into a major global conflict.
In a recent interview, Neil Howe gives an update to his prediction, believing that this winter could be a little longer and go until the early 2030s. You can watch his interview with Tony Robbins here:
Understanding Your Generation
Another key component of the saeculum is the 4 generational archetypes, reoccurring in the same order every century:
- A Prophet generation is born going into a High (First Turning) and will be wise elders during a crisis – Boomers
- A Nomad generation is born during an Awakening (Second Turning) and will be middle-aged for a crisis – GenX.
- A Hero generation will be raised during an Unraveling (Third Turning) and will be capable working adults during a crisis – Millennials.
- An Artist generation is born leading up to a crisis (Fourth Turning) and will be children/teens during a crisis – GenZ/Homeland Generation.
I’ll let you learn more about the characteristics of each generation by reading the book, but I will say that it’s given me greater insight into my own Millennial Generation, and especially the collective response to major recent events like the pandemic. Most millennials rose to the occasion and did what they were told was needed to end the crisis – wearing masks, missing family gatherings, and helping their children adjust to new rules at school. While I personally found so much of this frustrating and it was easy to perceive others in my generation as “sheep,” I see how this generation really was primed to step up as the heroes who’d “do what it takes.” After all, the previous generation to take on the title of Heroes were the “Greatest Generation,” who came of age in time to fight in WWII.
Surviving the Fourth Turning
As a prepper, my primary reason for reading this book was to gather insight from history for how to live through a winter season and remain mentally resilient. I’d love to hear your thoughts, based on reading the book, for how you are preparing for a looming climax (point of highest conflict) in this current Fourth Turning. Plus we can have hope for a new day, the upcoming Spring which our children will hopefully inherit.
Back of My Mind Conspiracy Thoughts…
It does feel very on the nose how the recent pandemic crisis seemed formulated to force a deeper “winter” season. Part of me wonders if the WEF elites are trying to make the book’s assumptions come true, but alter things to fit their perception of how “spring” should form. Let me know if you think I’m crazy, or on to something!
My Spiritual Interpretation
While this book doesn’t claim any religious affiliation, I do find that it lines up with my spiritual beliefs. As a follower of Yeshua (Jesus) with a Messianic worldview, I believe in a God who sets the seasons and invites us to understand the times we are living in so we can respond appropriately:
- Daniel 2:21 NIV: “He changes times and seasons; he deposes kings and raises up others. He gives wisdom to the wise and knowledge to the discerning.”
- Acts 17:26 NIV: “…He marked out their appointed times in history and the boundaries of their lands.”
- 1 Chronicles 12:32 NIV: “From Issachar, men who understood the times and knew what Israel should do.”
- Ecclesiastes 1:9 NIV: “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.”
- Ecclesiastes 3:1 NIV: “There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens.”
Intentions
My intent with reading this book isn’t to grow in head knowledge, but with the help of Holy Spirit, gain wisdom for how to respond in my day-to-day life. What small steps can I take today? What financial decisions should we be making to better plan for the future? How can I help my children respond to the values that their generation will likely espouse?
I hope it helps you too! Please share your thoughts in the comments below and in the Suburban Prepper Moms Facebook group.